Question 1
What is the number one rule of forecasting?
Always plot the data on a graph.
Remove all errors.
Implement simplicity for clarity.
Use facts over observations.
Question 2
Most forecasting problems faced by the health services manager can be accomplished using some form of forecasting known as what?
judgment forecasting
analytic forecasting
expert forecasting
genius forecasting
Question 3
What is analytic forecasting useful for predicting?
a new phenomenon
a situation for which little data exists
consensus opinions
annual inventory for a services organization
Question 4
A manager who is effective with forecasting will be able to do what?
reduce forecasting errors
make accurate forecasts
predict employee relationships
eliminate error
Question 5
What is another term for forecast?
predict
anticipate
foreshadow
guess
Question 6
If forecasting using 33 months of historical data, how many months should you forecast if using moving averages, n=2?
1
2
3
4
Question 7
If forecasting using 33 months of historical data, how many months should you forecast if using a 95% Confidence Interval?
1
2
3
4
Question 8
Average percent change as a forecasting method relies on what primary assumption?
cause and effect
the past predicts the future
naiveté
imputation
Question 9
Using moving averages for n = 2 and n = 3 will produce what types of forecasts?
equally accurate forecasts
widely varying forecasts
forecasts with small variances
forecasts with statistical differences
Question 10
Using a smoothing constant of 0.3, 0.35, or 0.4 will produce what types of forecasts?
equally accurate forecasts
widely varying forecasts
forecasts with small variances
forecasts with statistical differences
Question 11
What do regression lines look like?
curved
straight
zigzagged
inverted
Question 12
What does a slope of zero mean?
As Y changes, X also varies.
As X changes, Y also varies.
As Y changes, X remains constant.
As X changes, Y remains constant.
Question 13
What is the purpose for using confidence intervals in regression forecasting?
to place ranges around linear point estimates going into the future
to place ranges around linear point estimates going into the past
to place ranges around linear point estimates that reside in a cluster
to place ranges around linear point estimates that have minimal statistical congruence
Question 14
The mean absolute deviation of the regression forecast is determined through what mechanism?
the predicted value of the slope
the absolute average of the regression residuals
the 95% confidence interval of the coefficient
the regression formula
Question 15
If forecasting using 33 months of historical data, how many months should you forecast if using a regression forecast?
10
11
12
13
Question 16
The price per test is $85, and the variable cost per test is $15. Using this information, what is the breakeven point in volume if the allocated fixed costs were $210,000?
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
Question 17
Service systems used to provide medical care are complex and involve multiple steps. The capacity of any service system is determined by the capacity of each individual step in the production process. The step that has the lowest capacity determines what?
the entire system’s success rate
the potential failure of the entire system
the capacity of the entire system
the efficiency of the entire system
Question 18
The price per test is $85, and the variable cost per test is $15. Using this information, what is the breakeven point in volume if the allocated fixed costs were $350,000?
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
Question 19
What is true of system capacity?
It is unlimited across the globe.
It is unlimited in certain developed nations.
It is finite during certain times of the year.
It is finite regardless of location or time.
Question 20
The price per test is $85, and the variable cost per test is $15. What is the contribution margin per test?
$65
$70
$75
$80
Question 21
Queuing theory calculations describe service times according to which probability distribution?
Poisson
Exponential
Parabolic
Hyperbolic
Question 22
In a single channel single server system, if the service rate is 4 per hour and the arrival rate is 6 per hours, what is the probability that a unit must wait (Pw)?
33.33%
50%
66.67%
100%
Question 23
When queuing theory models are used in the development of appointment system, giving appointments every 15 minutes is the same as an arrival rate of how many per hour?
4
5
10
12
Question 24
In the single server single channel queue theory models, the closer μ is to λ, which will be higher?
W
L
Po
Pq
Question 25
In a single channel single server system, if the service rate is 4 per hour and the arrival rate is 6 per hours, what is the average time a unit spends waiting in the system (Wq)?
infinite
approximately 20 minutes
approximately 40 minutes
approximately 1 hour
