# analytic forecasting

Question 1

What is the number one rule of forecasting?

Always plot the data on a graph.

Remove all errors.

Implement simplicity for clarity.

Use facts over observations.

Question 2

Most forecasting problems faced by the health services manager can be accomplished using some form of forecasting known as what?

judgment forecasting

analytic forecasting

expert forecasting

genius forecasting

Question 3

What is analytic forecasting useful for predicting?

a new phenomenon

a situation for which little data exists

consensus opinions

annual inventory for a services organization

Question 4

A manager who is effective with forecasting will be able to do what?

reduce forecasting errors

make accurate forecasts

predict employee relationships

eliminate error

Question 5

What is another term for forecast?

predict

anticipate

guess

Question 6

If forecasting using 33 months of historical data, how many months should you forecast if using moving averages, n=2?

1

2

3

4

Question 7

If forecasting using 33 months of historical data, how many months should you forecast if using a 95% Confidence Interval?

1

2

3

4

Question 8

Average percent change as a forecasting method relies on what primary assumption?

cause and effect

the past predicts the future

naiveté

imputation

Question 9

Using moving averages for n = 2 and n = 3 will produce what types of forecasts?

equally accurate forecasts

widely varying forecasts

forecasts with small variances

forecasts with statistical differences

Question 10

Using a smoothing constant of 0.3, 0.35, or 0.4 will produce what types of forecasts?

equally accurate forecasts

widely varying forecasts

forecasts with small variances

forecasts with statistical differences

Question 11

What do regression lines look like?

curved

straight

zigzagged

inverted

Question 12

What does a slope of zero mean?

As Y changes, X also varies.

As X changes, Y also varies.

As Y changes, X remains constant.

As X changes, Y remains constant.

Question 13

What is the purpose for using confidence intervals in regression forecasting?

to place ranges around linear point estimates going into the future

to place ranges around linear point estimates going into the past

to place ranges around linear point estimates that reside in a cluster

to place ranges around linear point estimates that have minimal statistical congruence

Question 14

The mean absolute deviation of the regression forecast is determined through what mechanism?

the predicted value of the slope

the absolute average of the regression residuals

the 95% confidence interval of the coefficient

the regression formula

Question 15

If forecasting using 33 months of historical data, how many months should you forecast if using a regression forecast?

10

11

12

13

Question 16

The price per test is \$85, and the variable cost per test is \$15.  Using this information, what is the breakeven point in volume if the allocated fixed costs were \$210,000?

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

Question 17

Service systems used to provide medical care are complex and involve multiple steps. The capacity of any service system is determined by the capacity of each individual step in the production process.  The step that has the lowest capacity determines what?

the entire system’s success rate

the potential failure of the entire system

the capacity of the entire system

the efficiency of the entire system

Question 18

The price per test is \$85, and the variable cost per test is \$15.  Using this information, what is the breakeven point in volume if the allocated fixed costs were \$350,000?

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

Question 19

What is true of system capacity?

It is unlimited across the globe.

It is unlimited in certain developed nations.

It is finite during certain times of the year.

It is finite regardless of location or time.

Question 20

The price per test is \$85, and the variable cost per test is \$15.  What is the contribution margin per test?

\$65

\$70

\$75

\$80

Question 21

Queuing theory calculations describe service times according to which probability distribution?

Poisson

Exponential

Parabolic

Hyperbolic

Question 22

In a single channel single server system, if the service rate is 4 per hour and the arrival rate is 6 per hours, what is the probability that a unit must wait (Pw)?

33.33%

50%

66.67%

100%

Question 23

When queuing theory models are used in the development of appointment system, giving appointments every 15 minutes is the same as an arrival rate of how many per hour?

4

5

10

12

Question 24

In the single server single channel queue theory models, the closer μ is to λ, which will be higher?

W

L

Po

Pq

Question 25

In a single channel single server system, if the service rate is 4 per hour and the arrival rate is 6 per hours, what is the average time a unit spends waiting in the system (Wq)?

infinite

approximately 20 minutes

approximately 40 minutes

approximately 1 hour